So Basically, Here is Season 6, or "Hello, Hugo" by neorxnawang

Smokey is some kind of ancient evil. Likely, given the clues, Apophis from Egyptian mythology. (Plethora of Egyptian symbology; the numbers are reflective of Egyptian holy numbers; the donkey wheel dumps people out in Egypt; his predilection for both tempting and judging, connection with the dead).

He is trapped/imprisoned by the island. The deal is that someone (rather, a series of someones) eternally watches over him. He can't leave on his own, and he can't directly kill either the appointed guardian or any candidate for replacement guardian. That's cheating, and it won't fulfull his parole conditions anyway.

The only way out for Smokey is for the acting guardian to agree to let Smokey go home. Jacob had been around too long, knew too much about Smokey, and he wasn't ever going to let that happen.

So Smokey had to engage in some elaborate machinations to get someone on the island who was flawed enough to actually kill Jacob, down to the point where he had to engage in some timestream manipulation to CREATE such a perfect monster (Ben). He has tried and tried to get people who find the island to kill Jacob and agree to let him loose, but has failed again and againbecause, well, who'd want to kill Jacob in their right mind? It is difficult to imagine that anyone who had not been groomed and tortured their whole lives would let Smokey out to judge and lay waste to the whole modern world. So he groomed someone from infancy. Smokey 1, Jacob 0.

That is the entire game: Smokey needs to eliminate the current guardian (Jacob), find a tractable candidate guardian, get him "appointed", and then get him to agree to release him. A "tractable" guardian is one who is kept in the dark about what is going on, hates the island, yet is still appointed the guardian.

How? By process of elimination. If Candidate 1 looks like he won't play ball if appointed, get rid of him and move to #2.

And so, with all the candidates back on the island, the most tractable of them must be recruited, and the rest eliminated. (Smokey can't kill them directly. He must get them to kill themselves or someone else must be manipulated into the act).

The "candidates" are candidates because each of them has a personality or character quirk that would make them a suitable guy to ignore Smokey's tricks and cajoling, at least until someone else equally well-suited comes along. (Desmond is not a candidate; he stopped pushing the button after "only" a few years and with no backup plan in mind. Smokey would beat him eventually).

Jack: is single-mindedly driven to fix things.
Sawyer: is a con man and won't fall for tricks.
Hurley: is pure of spirit.
Sayid: is the guy who will unflinchingly do the unpleasant work to achieve what he believes is a greater good, up to torture and killing. To save others from having to.
Locke: had blind faith and would just do things just because he thought he should--he didn't question.
Kwon: This one's kind of tough. They are devoted to each other and driven to stay together. But this is one of the mysteries of S6. Why are these people candidates? One, or both? Jin is dutiful, but has been shown to have his limits. Sun wants to make Jin happy, but has been shown to have her limits. Maybe it refers to their daughter. More information is needed.

The ALT timeline: shows the candidates without their defining candidate characteristics. Last night we saw Locke without faith in anything. Jack seems less psychotically driven. Hurley, though, still seems pure, but seems MORE confident. A BETTER candidate.

The ALT timeline is the one where Smokey thinks he has stacked the deck to win. Smokey is going to eliminate (he hopes) the knowledgeable versions of the candidates on the island and then (his loophole) deal with the more tractable, ALT versions. One of whom, he hopes, will let him loose, particularly since they don't know much about him, even if he can't get one of the Sawyers or Sayids already on the island to be his patsy.

The island ends up getting sunk; Smokey gets free; Jacob is still dead (otherwise, how did the island get destroyed/sunk, since the appointed guardian is supposed to protect the island); and the candidates (at least so far in their centric episodes) have lost what made them candidates: faith, single-minded drive, in the brief instance we saw Sun/Jin, a genuine focus on each other vs. the way they were at the beginning of S1). So there aren't any candidates, or at least, the candidates have lost what will enable them to stand up to Smokey (and by the end, I am fairly sure the ALT timeline characters will end up on the island).

Prediction: Winner and still champion at the end of S6, and new guardian of the island: Hurley. He seems like the weakest one, but he is the one who is pure and has stayed pure throughout the show. He's even a BETTER good guy in the ALT timeline: selfless despite wealth and temptation, more confident. Still sorry when he offends someone, and still turns the other cheek. Smokey has underestimated Hugo.

Sawyer will be shown to be running a con on Smokey, and will be a hero in the end, but will pay for it.

Last scene: Smokey and Hurley on the beach. Something is inbound for the island. An ALT version of the first scene of S5. The game renews.