Each season causes me to re-think my assumptions and theories that were developed on the basis of incomplete facts and entertaining speculation. But we are told we are reaching the end and as we reach it, inevitably, we begin to get anxious and we cannot help but fall back on speculation. Well – here is my contribution – we are witnessing the passing of the baton – Jacob and MIB comprise the universal balance of good and evil. Clearly, MIB wanted to disrupt that balance, and the actions Jacob is taking is to ensure that the balance will be restored. Based on where the plot line is going, I believe Jack could very well turn out to be the replacement for Jacob, but who will be the new MIB – there is in truth only one candidate – Ben.
Here is why I believe this to be the case. If we take at face value all that we have seen at the end of season 5 and beginning of this season, whether you believe Ben was empowered to kill Jacob or Jacob allowed Ben to kill him, Ben did the deed on his own, without MIB’s help. MIB led Flocke to manipulate Ben, but Flocke is not MIB (hell Flocke didn’t even know where Jacob lived). No, I believe Flocke is MIB’s Richard. Just as Jacob made Richard what he is, MIB made Flocke what he is. I believe we will learn over the next few episodes that Flocke was someone on the Black Rock who obviously knew Richard and may well have been betrayed by him.
Go back and re-examine Flocke’s appearance after the Ajira crash – he is wearing the clothes Locke was wearing in the coffin and I recall he may have put on the shoes as well. He appears to have absorbed Locke’s memories, and may have at times during the early seasons inhabited his body (explaining, perhaps, why at times we saw two seemingly different Lockes). No Flocke is not MIB, and yes he could be the Smoke Monster, but the writers made it clear that the Monster appeared from a different direction and when it left, Flocke appeared from the opposite direction.
So if Flocke is not MIB and MIB is destined to be replaced to restore balance, then first MIB must die. AND – MIB’s death is the reason why the Losties are on the island. They will be Jacob’s instruments in planning and causing MIB to die. The Others will not be cable of killing MIB and Flocke will do all he can to stop MIB. In much the same way MIB needed a loophole to kill Jacob, so to Jacob needed a loophole to do away with MIB, the planning for which started a very long time ago with Jacob’s touch. Both Flocke and MIB will die (and perhaps Richard as well. Once MIB is dead, then Ben becomes his surrogate. Jack is Jacob’s surrogate and balance is restored.
And it begins all over again.