There seems to be a lot of theories recently about the losties flashing to 815 and 815 landing in LAX. I briefly commented on someone’s theory why I felt this was irrational, but since the hiatus is in full swing, figured I might as well write a theory for other content-starved people like myself.
The general consensus seems to be that the Swan implosion experienced by Desmond and the Incident experienced by the losties are the same, judging by the white flash and EM/radiation at the site.
Let's examine the Swan implosion with Desmond for a minute. I believe that the Swan implosion caused a flash that enabled Desmond to consciousness travel to his past, events that have already happened in his life. The implosion/flash itself did not change anything; rather, the flash gave Desmond a second chance to make different choices and decisions in his past. The slight changes Desmond makes/causes are evidenced by the encounter with Hawking and the bar scene.
Now if we are to follow the same formula for the Incident and the losties, the losties flashing to flight 815 landing in LAX doesn’t make sense, as it doesn’t jive with the formula laid out by Desmond’s experience with the Swan implosion/flash. Most people seem to propose this idea of the losties flashing to a past that never existed, but the Incident itself didn’t cause any changes! As far as we know, the incident has happened already, probably exactly the same way we saw in the episode… WHH. But, as Daniel said, humans are the variables. So what CAN change is when people consciousness travel due to these special flashes, first with Desmond, and now with the losties. Desmond’s experience was the blueprint laid out by the producers for future reference. The Incident didn’t change the past, but gave the losties an outlet, the flash, the ability to make slight changes themselves in their pasts. That’s why to me, the losties flashing back to an actual past event! in their lives makes more sense than the losties flashing to an event that they’ve never experienced before.
Ok so, if not to 815 and LAX, where do they flash to? Well, this is where it gets wacky. I am proposing that the losties will flash to the moments in their lives when Jacob touched them. Like Desmond’s experience in Flashes Before Your Eyes, I don’t think the losties will retain memory of what went on on the island. But they will still make changes to their past unknowingly, much like Desmond did by buying the ring, getting hit by the guy in the bar, etc. Maybe Kate gets into trouble with the law earlier in her life and becomes a worse criminal (or she learns from her mistake without Jacob’s interference and DOESN’T become a criminal). Maybe Sawyer doesn’t become a con man and doesn’t hold a grudge all his life. Maybe Sayid saves his love. Maybe Jack doesn’t despise his father for embarrassing him in front of his surgery team and doesn’t rat out his father for being drunk in surgery later and Christian lives. The difficult person to incorporate into this theo! ry is Locke. Mybe because of Jacob’s touch, the FLocke we see in the statue gets flashed back to a lifeless Locke body when Cooper throws him out the window (effectively killing Flocke? Maybe that’s for another time…), and the real Locke gets transferred to his body dumped onto the beach by Ilana and crew in 2007. After these changes, which, for many of the losties, are a chance at redemption for mistakes in their pasts, I think the losties will flash back to 2007 to join Locke and Sun and Richard as new and improved versions of themselves, finally capable of leading their side to victory against the coming war (against Widmore? Richard? Your guess is as good as mine here!). Hope it wasn’t too crazy for you and enjoyed reading it!