My theory is that the smoke plays God on the island, punishing people, giving life, and taking life. I think that everyone or the majority of people on the island who have killed someone or done something extremely horrible on the island or in the past get punished, usually by death. Not all deaths are a result of the smoke. As it chooses a precise time to kill. Take Eko for example, he faces the smoke once and no harm is done for him, as the smoke sees the greater plan and spares him. But then later on it kills him, seeing that his time is up, perhaps because Eko is ready to move on.
Here is an interesting chain I've noticed:
Michael kills Ana-Lucia, who killed Shannon
The man (Part of the others)who has helped capture Jack, Kate, and Sawyer, his wife is killed
Boone died in an accident that helped lead to interesting discoveries that benefit the survivors and helped Locke to help Eko and Charlie
Desmond kills the man originally from the hatch by accident, and is then haunted by fear
I think that the following people are doomed to die as part of the theory:
Michael (for killing Ana-Lucia)
Ben (as he has done a lot of evil)
Desmond (eventually as a result of blowing up the hatch and killing the man)
Sayid (he tortured people)
I know there are holes in this theory, but I'm trying to think of what can patch them up.
Theory by Caitlin