After watching across the sea, I have to admit I was upset. Originally I wanted more answers, but after reading a few theories, and thinking about it on my way to class today. I have a new theory, that piggy backs on ideas touched upon in other theories, and adds a lot of things I thought of today.
---- A time before Jacob and MIB ----
It seems that their fmother, who I guess also doesn't have a name, claims she was shipwrecked on the island. Either one of two things are occurring here, she is lying and she is a goddess, or she is telling the truth and came to her position in a similar way that Jacob did. Either way, it doesn't matter. She is the protector of the light. I love that they don't attempt to explain this, and I hope they don't. It is attempting to say that it doesn't matter if the show is about religion or science, you could look at it either way and be happy. It is very poetic in nature.
---- Jacob/MIB Born on the island ----
Their true mother shipwrecks on the island, meets fmommy, has the kids, and gets killed. I am fairly certain that this is indeed because she knows she needs uncorrupted boys to take care of the island. She didn't want them knowing there was anything else but the island. Eventually though, they would find out she was lying. MIB decides he wants off the island, and builds that wheel as a way to get off. It's clear that the MIB is quickly finding out the powers of the light. Jacob becomes the new light guardian and takes on the responsibility of it. MIB transforms into smokey. Smokey is a new entity, fuse with the mind of the MIB and the light of the island. The MIB as we know him is dead, but his consciousness lives on as a part of the MIB.
---- Jacob's Game ----
Jacob can't let smokey leave because he now contains part of the light within him. He now needs to protect the rest of the world from smokey. The question of whether the light still exists on the island is a valid one. I'm going to argue yes, I think it has to exist and now Jacob has 2 major rolls on the island. 1) Making sure the light is protected, and 2) making sure smokey stays on the island. So he created a new game (with the implication that for some reason Smokey has to follow). The game: Find an outsider to be the new protector of the island. Rules: 1) Smokey Can't kill the protector, 2) If the protector dies, the Smokey can't kill the candidates to replace him, 3)Smokey has to stay on the island, and can't leave until the protector/ and all candidates are dead, 4) The candidates can be disqualified if they are deemed unpure to take over (not sure what is considered unpure, but it is bad). So Jacob play's American Idol with the people he brings to the island. He builds a light house to view all of them and he selects a finite list of people, if he can't find one decent person to replace him, Smokey wins. The lighthouse can not only see off the island, but uses the "light"(get it, "light"house) to see through time too, and selects his people.
---- Ricardo comes to the island ----
Jacob is getting frustrated, because so far, he is losing this game. But when all hope seems bleak, in comes Ricardo. He acts as an adviser on the island, and he has had that position for a long time. He attempts to steer people in the right direction while not telling them this is what they have to do. This should be fairly obvious now
---- Oceanic Flight 815 Crashes ----
The last of the potential candidates arrive. Jacob is nervous, as all hope rests on these few survivors. But also his QB is coming in, Jack. From the start of the show, Jack has pretty much been the man. Yeah he is kind of a wuss in later seasons, but early on there was no doubting jack. As the series goes on, it's clear that Jack is going to be the one to replace him. Smokey eliminates who he can. In the case of Mr. Ecko, Smokey couldn't kill him right away. It's not until Ecko says he is not sorry for his past that he is killed. This must have been enough to deem him unpure to rule.
---- Jacob's Death ----
Smokey found half of his loophole in having Ben kill Jacob. He killed him with ease, I think because he knows that Jack is his man. Before Jacob dies he tells Smokey "They're coming".
at the same time 30 years earlier
--- Jughead ----
Jack, Sun, Hugo, James, Kate, and Juliette set the bomb off. They flash forward into the future. They did come. The candidates are now back from the past. I believe that they were trapped there by smokey in order to achieve his reality. The other half of the loophole was to quarantine the candidates in 1977. When the candidates return, Smokey accepts we are going into overtime.
---- Everyone Back in 2007 ----
It is now a battle between Smokey trying to figure out how to deal with the candidates, and the candidates trying to escape the island (Except our QB Jack who now is starting to come to terms with his destiny). We also see a young jacob running around the island keeping Smokey informed on the rules of the game. Probably to make sure that even in death, he follows the rules. Charles Whidmore is the last threat to the island. I don't believe him and smokey are exactly on the same page, but I am not convinced they are enemies. Charles Whidmore wants control of the remaining light, Smokey wants to leave. Their goals do not exactly match up with each other, but they don't really pose a threat. Charles brought Desmond back to the island because he is the only one who can retrieve the light without dieing. He is using Desmond for power and control, and Whidmore doesn't care what happens to Smokey, since he will have his power. The maps he brought to the island should help him find the source.
---- What Happens Now ----
After the lighthouse episode, it is clear that Jack is the one who needed to come to terms with his destiny, and after The Candidate, it's clear that he really has. He now needs to stop BOTH Whidmore and Smokey, or we are all screwed. Sadly, this means Hurley, Kate, and Sawyer are probably expendable.
---- UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ----
1) How does the ATL fit into this theory?
2) Jacob mentions that he needs someone to find the island, who? (if anyone, it's possible he told that to hurley as a lie)
3) What about Walt?
4) How does Aaron fit into the story?
There are many more things I need to say and add, but if I make this too long, most people probably wont care. So this is part 1. Part 2 will come later in the week. If you like it, let me know. I am working on answers to many of the questions I left you with.
---- Final Thought ----
Something to think about to hint at where I am going with all of this, we see a lot of patterns in LOST, one of them is pregnancy and children. Aaron does fit into all of this, look at the history, and we can all figure it out.