Smokie Judges the Candidates and MIB's Motives by Alex Tear

It hit me recently that after the episode "Dead is Dead", it seems like any theories on what Smokie is actually judging have slowly disappeared. Now, most people, and presumably Ben in the show, believe that Smokie judges people to see if what they have done was good or bad, and whether a person deserves to carry on living or be killed.

However, I have recently began to think this is wrong, or at least only part of the judging process, based on a number of factors:

* For starters, the whole deal with Eko seems to point towards, if anything, that the monster is judging whether a person BELIEVES what they have done is wrong. In the case of Eko, he has accepted what he had done, and so does not ask for forgiveness. Presumably because of this, Smokie kills him.

* In complete comparison to my first point, Ben goes to the monster ASKING for forgiveness, not denying it. In this case, the monster lets him live.

From these two points we could assume that the monster is only able to kill someone who is not upset or anguished by what they have done. Considering what we are beginning to be told about good and evil ("Inside every man is a scale", sayid and claire being "evil" etc), this seems to point towards asking for forgiveness as good, and therefore that accepting what you have done is bad (equaling death).

While I do find this to be an acceptable explanation if it may be the case, up till this point where not everything has been explained, there are still many more factors that contradict this ideology:

* If Smokie is a form of judge, how come he is able to kill so many people (the pilot, the mercenaries, or a recent example, the temple others)?

In this case, I at first thought that perhaps Smokie has judged these people earlier, and was simply waiting to kill them at a later point. THIS however, I can only see as correct in the case of the temple others, as Smokie - presumably - never met the others he killed recklessly at an earlier date.

Continuing from this point, I am therefore forced into thinking that Smokie is allowed to kill certain people without judging them. For me, it stands to reason, that these people are not "Special". After recent episodes, this has pushed me to believe even more, that these people who are NOT special,must NOT be CANDIDATES. From this line of thinking, i assume that Smokie's judging process is reserved only for candidates.

* The Man In Black: This is where I believe Smokies judging comes into play quite seriously in the endgame of Lost, explaining MIB's motives for killing Jacob, etc.

As many had theorised, the status of "leader" of the others seemed to work in fashion by which an "Advisor" (Richard) helps choose the next leader, and when the time comes, perhaps the leader chooses the next advisor. I forget the origins of this style of thought, for I'm sure some of you have heard of it. (It is some kind of religous thing? the dali lama?) Either way, the new introduction of even further rules to the "game" that MIB and Jacob are playing, makes me believe that MIB, as Smokie, is the "Advisor" to Jacob - or at least was, clearly not now. Somehow given the powers of being the Smoke Monster, MIB advises/picks, or "JUDGES" who would be an acceptable replacement for Jacob, after his death.

Presumably, this could be further explanation of why Eko was killed, while Ben was spared - Smokie neither judges whether you're good enough to live, OR whether you are asking for forgiveness - MIB/Smokie, is judging whether you are still in the running as a candidate to replace Jacob. This leads me to think that still being a candidate does not neccersarily require you to be alive (Many candidates whose names had been crossed off, could, theoretically be alive (Littleton, etc)).

Therefore, the answer seems more convulsed than at first thought. In line with all of these thoughts and what we now know about MIB's master plan to kill Jacob, get home, etc etc, my theory now stands as:

MIB, was as he says, once a man. Through some method (Going out on a limb here, perhaps prolonged exposure to the pool in the temple, a pool which brings people back differently depending on whether they're good and evil? i.e. judging them? not sure on this, just a guess haha) but anyway yes, through some method, MIB is transformed into the monster, being given powers to judge candidates in the process. Everything seems fine for a while, though perhaps MIB resents his new position which he did not want.

Either way, at some later date, MIB begins to tire of Jacobs search for a replacement, as he realises he will be stook on the island for as long as his search goes on, and perhaps beyond that, to search for the NEXT replacement. Perhaps a number of cycles of this have already happened, this just being the last straw to push MIB over the edge, so to speak. With no foreseeable escape from the island while Jacob lives, as he must continue his duty, MIB waits for his elusive loop hole to come along.

At first, Smokie tries it on with Eko, but ultimately fails, as Eko relinqueshs his position as a candidate (Presumably this act of asking for forgiveness is instrumental in granting candidancy, or a person must at least have certain qualities in them for them to be a replacement, understanding your errors being one of them). Because of this, Smokie is forced to move on to Locke, who was perhaps always his first choice, since seeing him right at the start, and then later trying but failing to pull him down a vent at the end of season 1.

As we know, the loophole in the "Rules" that MIB must adibe by came into fruition and Jacob got stabbed. (Can I just say at this point that I HATE how people misunderstand loop holes - its a loophole in rules, a form of contract etc, NOT a loop in time. While the time loops created in all the time traveling helped in postitioning Locke as his substitue body and getting him access to Jacob as a pretend "leader", I beleive it is the use of a candidate killing the one they are meant to replace as closer to the true loophole).

But anyway, FINALLY (Thankyou if you have read this far hahaha) MIB is now on the island and at least CAPABLE of leaving, perhaps to reach the rest of the world, killing them all, as they are NOT candidates out there. With Jacob dead, I believe Smokie is SUPPOSED to choose a new candidate to replace Jacob, it is HIS job to choose the next protector.

Personally, I believe the final episodes of Lost will have something to do with this, as Smokie will for some reason, be unable to not judge one of our final Losties, or perhaps have a change of heart (I DOUBT IT, but still, haha he was "an old friend" of Jacob's at one point). IN FACT, just thought this, maybe the real Lockes subconsious - which seems somehow intact, at least partially - will take control long enough to do the final judgement (Maybe just hopefull thinking, but wouldn't it be great if John got control back and accepted his destiny as advisor rather than leader? I hope so anyway ;)).

AND SO, at the end, one of our losties -I'm hoping Jack, it would be fitting - will be the last left on the island, as the new protector, with Locke - hopefully the real locke, fingers crossed haha - taking over MIB's position of advisor, the two of them left on the island to replay the cycle.

Thankyou again if you honestly read all this, I never expected all that to come out when I started haha, still, any massive holes you see in my theory, please hit me up about it, would like hear what you think. Who knows, it may all be disproved by next week by one line hahahaha.

Alex Tear