Perhaps it is, perhaps it isn't.... by Marky Spark

This is just a theory I have formulated over the past few weeks, with the sunken island shown in the premiere the reference point, as this most likely this will be the final result of the season. The final resolution.

I have neglected perhaps some vital parts such as why Richard told Hurley not to trust Jacob, Charles Widmore's role and the lighthouse. Maybe this could lead to a new direction for the narrative and I'm completely off-base. My theory is a product of thinking in a linear, simple fashion, taking out all of the complex mythology and peripheral narrative which help make this possibly the greatest show on television.

I believe the island is sunken by either a group of candidates or the final candidate. The reason I think this is that possibly it's the only way to debilitate Smocke, preventing him from ever leaving the island, which may be revealed later in the season.

Initially I believe both Jacob and MIB were installed to protect the island for some, as of yet, unknown reason apart from knowing the island is special. MIB essentially answers to Jacob even though MIB (imo) has/had more mystical/supernatural abilities (Not sure of their origins obviously). As a result I think MIB feels undermined because even though he may have more power, physically and perhaps metaphysically, he still has to answer to Jacob (as the island's "security system").

I do not believe MIB needs to be replaced, I believe Jacob does after his death. We know from the S5 finale, that even over a hundred years ago MIB wanted to kill Jacob, perhaps these feelings have lasted centuries, maybe he even has tried before. Jacob knew one day this could happen (upon learning of Hurley's gift, Jacob recognized it as a useful communication or instruction tool in the event of his death), thus he needed to start working fast to find a replacement, hence his construction or use of a pre-existing lighthouse. I believe MIB saying " They come, fight, they destroy, they corrupt...it always ends the same..." was actually MIB disparaging Jacob about his search for a replacement before MIB finally kills him though a loophole.

Fast forward...

Jacob is dead, and MIB is finally "free" from Jacob's rule, thus leaving him free to exercise his mighty abilities on the outside world. But not quite. Jacob has whittled it down to the last 6 candidates, whom are more than likely all on the island at this moment, MIB can guess as much. Now it's MIB's time to act urgently. He needs to recruit. This being, he needs to either recruit all the candidates, thus effectively ending their candidacy (sorry for the "you don't say" statement), or having other people kill them all. He CAN'T kill any candidate, not because he can't harm ANY, but he could harm the "one", whom neither Jacob or MIB know will be (I think Miles highlighted Jacob's uncertainty in what could happen when he relayed Jacob's final thoughts to Ben).

I think killing the "one" could cause some catastrophe which would be detrimental to his (MIB's) own desires of perhaps exerting his influence of the real world, where he feels his power will serve better through his judgement, therefore he wouldn't be silly enough to do it without a helping hand. He believes his power is too great to protect "just a damn island". One thing he CAN do is ressurect and influence people who have died on island. This is an important part of his recruitment procedure.

As seen in "Dr. Linus", those touched by Jacob cannot die. I believe this to be correct. In a manner of speaking. I believe they couldn't die at Smocke's or of their own hand when Jacob was alive. Now they can die of others' hand, just not of their own hand. This is why Richard was so afraid. He know he could die at MIB's hand now Jacob is dead, AND become infected thus effectively under his control. Richard knows MIB's true desires and doesn't want to be part of them, but Jack would be an impartial euthanasiast with nothing to gain hence he asks Jack to kill him.

Referring to my original statement of opinion regarding the sunken island. I believe the candidates that remain "good", for lack of a better word, will spend so much time figuring out which of them is the "one" and deciding how to go about their role that drastic times will call for drastic measures. Subsequently they decide to act as a unit, a "candidates super team", to defeat Smocke as he seems to have nearly finished his crusade.

One thing that has been maintained throughout the series is that the island NEEDS to exist for, again an unkown reason. The "super team" will concur that they have both ensure the island exists and they have to contain Smocke. Under the water, both could be assured...

Finally I simply don't know what the ATL is yet, as I believe the cirumstances surrounding the sinking of the island and how it occurs will explain the ATL. Or perhaps it's just unrelated, with a different explanation. I just wanted to air my thought about some of the "rules" (peppered in the paragraphs above, which are hopefully obvious to readers) and the sunken island.

Post any queries, hopefully I can answer them...