I have never written in to a fan site before, and I have seen about 20 episodes of Lost, but the story is painfully obvious.
Linedlof (sp?) is a huge comic fanboy. According to Wikipedia, he would have been 13ish when Secret Wars and Crisis on Infinite Earths came out.
Lost is just an amalgam of these two stories.
Secret Wars: A powerful being decides to have two factions fight each other so the god can understand human nature. He brings them to a mystic planet to fight. Jacob/Man in Black play the role of the Beyonder.
Crisis on Infinite Earths: The Monitor knows that his nemesis the Anti-Monitor is going to kill him, but allows it to happen anyway because circumstances will result in things playing out for the best and that so conflicting time lines and people slipping around in time can be reconciled.
There, that's it. The big reveal is that two powerful beings are having a bet about good and evil on a magic island with the fate of time as the stakes.
Finally, it should be noted that the accepted rule of time travel in Marvel Comics is that you cannot change the past, all you can do is create an alternate time line. That is what happened on season premiere. A new timeline was created and the two timelines will not intersect.