Three, Not Two by EmilyG

I don't think "the war" is between Jacob and the Man in Black, and I don't think the MIB was the entity imprisoned in the cabin. We know MIB = Smokey, and Smokey's been joyfully rampaging since Season 1. I think there are three 'entities' at play here, and Jacob/MIB are aligned against the third force. The ring of ash was to keep Smokey/MIB from destroying the third entity inside the cabin, and Bram et al were sent by the third force, not Jacob.

First, let's go back to Season 4. A mysterious figure in the shadows wants to know who Sayid is working for (and presumably, to know who the leader is on the Island). It makes no sense for that person to be Widmore or the MIB, as both already knew who was in charge of the Others. And who had the Oceanic Six staked out immediately prior to Ajira 316? Again, we were led to believe it was either Widmore or Ben, but that makes no sense: neither had anything to gain from this. It makes more sense that a force unaware of the current state of affairs on the Island was spying on them to gain intel.

I think this third force was behind the Dharma Initiative. For all the discussions of civilization vs jungle, both Jacob and the MIB seem firmly entrenched in the 'jungle' side of the equation. Neither was on Dharma's side, so who did Dharma ultimately answer to?

I think the Dharma Initiative is returning to the Island. UnLocke first appeared at the Hydra Station, and the 'hydra' is a great many-headed serpent. Cut off one head of the Hydra, and two more would sprout in its place. The Others purged the Dharma initiative from the Island, but presumably left Ann Arbor HQ untouched. They didn't kill the snake, and now it's 'reconstituted' itself. The Others impersonated the DI until 2004, when the Losties arrived; at that point, communications were cut off and Ann Arbor began to suspect something was up. When the O6 had their faces flashed across major media outlets worldwide, somebody went "oh shit, I've seen those guys before," looked up some old Dharma files, and began freaking out.

Dharma operatives spied on the O6. That's why Widmore was freaking out over being seen with Sun---he didn't want Dharma knowing he was one of the Others. From Sayid's interrogation, Dharma knew the O6 would return on Ajira 316.

It's relevant that Dharma's true leaders---Hanso, the DeGroots, etc.---were controlling things from off-Island. Maybe they serve the third entity, and that entity couldn't set foot on the Island without being destroyed by Smokey? And after the DI had enough of a foothold, that entity came to the Island, only to become stuck in the cabin when he/it ventured too far into Smokey's territory.

It makes no sense for Jacob to summon off-Island bodyguards when everyone on-Island served him. A ring of ash could have ensured that Smokey couldn't enter his domain, but he didn't even bother with that. I think Bram et al were sent by this third entity to protect Jacob because the third entity knew that he'd lose the war if the MIB officially took over the Others. (We only saw Jacob meet with Ilana, and he told her he needed her help, not her protection---maybe it's relevant that only Ilana chose not to go up against Smokey in the Statue.) That's why this entity wanted to know who was in charge on-Island: if Jacob lived, he had a chance, but if the MIB took over, he knew he was screwed.

I think Season 6 will see a war between the new Dharma Initiative and the new Others (now led by Smokey and consisting of Jacob's followers and the Losties). We've waited five years for the Losties to officially join the Others, and now that it seems likely they will (they've been in the Temple, after all), they need an antagonist. Getting off the Island is no longer their driving force, so what will they do all day? I think the DI will come and now the Losties will be the mysterious figures in the jungle (from the DI's perspective, "James LaFleur", "Miles Straume," etc., haven't aged a day in over thirty years).