This theory began as a comment on "The Purge Had to Have Happened Prior to 1988" by Lostmommyof3 and then I veered into enough speculation to put it in its own theory post. You don't have to, but I'd recommend reading that Lostmommyof3 theory. Anyways here goes:
Re: the validity of [2004 Cabin Fever - Horace Goodspeed's 12 years dead = 1992 purge] common dating math
I'm really glad to see someone finally addressing this particular timeline confusion. The "1992" purge dating has always conflicted with the other impressions we are given of the late-eighties island.
In Little Prince and ThsPlceisDeath, Rousseau clearly arrived in a post-Dharma era. The smoke monster is extremely prominent in our Jin + Rousseau "1987" scenes. Whereas, in our Roger + Ben pre-purge birthday gassing scene, supposedly 5 years afterwords, it is apparently no big deal for an old janitor and his diminutive son to have a couple of quiet beers on the Mesa.
Now while there are many ways to work around this apparent incongruity plot-wise, the broad strokes of atmosphere and tone laid out in our current season affirm the notion that the era of the spooky and desolate island with aggressive smoke monster action that the 815'ers encountered in S1-4 was AFTER an era where Dharma workmen could drive VW buses between stations and the barracks, i.e. after the "Purge". And so was Rousseau's era of 1987.
My thought is that the "Incident" occurred immediately prior to the "Purge". 1985 or so? The "Incident" may even have precipitated the "Purge". Did Dharma discover "Jughead"? Did they use it in conjunction with the exotic matter pocket?
At any rate, perhaps a Dharma experiment at the Orchid or Swan went awry and pissed Jacob/Island/Others off something fierce. Jacob orders the purge via Widmore, Ben is the inside man at Dharma. Ben sets in motion the Tempest gas release, kills his Dad, etc. Ben then tricks Widmore into turning the donkey wheel to move the island, ostensibly to hide it from reprisals by Dharma's friends/sponsors/etc... the Army, the U.N., Hanso, whomever.
Somehow, this donkey wheel turn starts a course of events that leads to rampant smoke monster activity and the pregnancy problems.
Rousseau arrives, Alexandra is born and taken by Ben.
Approx 1993, Kelvin arrives, sent by Widmore (recruited from the backwash of US military covert ops like Keamy) to retake the island (maybe armed with the snowman joke password from Dharma records). As always, arrival on the island doesn't go well, he washes up on shore without his strike team. Radzinksy takes him into his Swan hatch and embroils him in button-paranoia. Kelvin soaks up all kinds of info about the Dharma Initiative, uses it to build up his cover, becomes stockholmed into believing in the button like everyone else...
Perhaps he kills Radzinksy, but I would doubt it... he's desperate for company... maybe it's an accident.
Ben & Co. monitor all from the Pearl, perhaps subtly manipulate Kelvin's paranoia.
That's the eighties and nineties. Maybe.Theory by Lino Bambino
Re: the validity of [2004 Cabin Fever - Horace Goodspeed's 12 years dead = 1992 purge] common dating math
I'm really glad to see someone finally addressing this particular timeline confusion. The "1992" purge dating has always conflicted with the other impressions we are given of the late-eighties island.
In Little Prince and ThsPlceisDeath, Rousseau clearly arrived in a post-Dharma era. The smoke monster is extremely prominent in our Jin + Rousseau "1987" scenes. Whereas, in our Roger + Ben pre-purge birthday gassing scene, supposedly 5 years afterwords, it is apparently no big deal for an old janitor and his diminutive son to have a couple of quiet beers on the Mesa.
Now while there are many ways to work around this apparent incongruity plot-wise, the broad strokes of atmosphere and tone laid out in our current season affirm the notion that the era of the spooky and desolate island with aggressive smoke monster action that the 815'ers encountered in S1-4 was AFTER an era where Dharma workmen could drive VW buses between stations and the barracks, i.e. after the "Purge". And so was Rousseau's era of 1987.
My thought is that the "Incident" occurred immediately prior to the "Purge". 1985 or so? The "Incident" may even have precipitated the "Purge". Did Dharma discover "Jughead"? Did they use it in conjunction with the exotic matter pocket?
At any rate, perhaps a Dharma experiment at the Orchid or Swan went awry and pissed Jacob/Island/Others off something fierce. Jacob orders the purge via Widmore, Ben is the inside man at Dharma. Ben sets in motion the Tempest gas release, kills his Dad, etc. Ben then tricks Widmore into turning the donkey wheel to move the island, ostensibly to hide it from reprisals by Dharma's friends/sponsors/etc... the Army, the U.N., Hanso, whomever.
Somehow, this donkey wheel turn starts a course of events that leads to rampant smoke monster activity and the pregnancy problems.
Rousseau arrives, Alexandra is born and taken by Ben.
Approx 1993, Kelvin arrives, sent by Widmore (recruited from the backwash of US military covert ops like Keamy) to retake the island (maybe armed with the snowman joke password from Dharma records). As always, arrival on the island doesn't go well, he washes up on shore without his strike team. Radzinksy takes him into his Swan hatch and embroils him in button-paranoia. Kelvin soaks up all kinds of info about the Dharma Initiative, uses it to build up his cover, becomes stockholmed into believing in the button like everyone else...
Perhaps he kills Radzinksy, but I would doubt it... he's desperate for company... maybe it's an accident.
Ben & Co. monitor all from the Pearl, perhaps subtly manipulate Kelvin's paranoia.
That's the eighties and nineties. Maybe.Theory by Lino Bambino
