Hello chaps. Not really sure if this has been broached before, but I feel it is of importance nonetheless.
This will be a short muse rather than a long ramble :)
It has been shown previously how Smokey can "download" people and gain their memories somehow. Well this is quite a powerful tool in and of itself, BUT, when combined with the time travelling properties of the island, the potential is somewhat staggering. Imagine that he were to "download" the memories of someone from a time 20 years into the future. This would allow him rudimentary knowledge of world events, as well as everything pertaining to that persons future. This would make it entirely possible to, with the help of Jacob, for example, manipulate people into getting on the one plane that crashed. Perhaps they have a pact, where Jacob travels the world setting up people for coming to the island, while Smokey scans them to learn more of what batch to bring next.
Say for example that any one of the time-travelling losties were scanned by smokey once they were in 1977... this would presumably give him their memories of the future, along with the name of the plane on which they crashed, etc. Which may enable Jacob (who seems able to leave) to somehow "bring" these people to the island, with prior knowledge of their personalities.
This theory kind of demands that MIB and Jacob are working together to find new candidates, so that they may move on to other things. This could also explain how Jacob selects his candidates, as well as why he watches them in their earlier life.
This theory feels incomplete to me, but it jolted me like a bolt of caffeine lightning when it hit
edit: this will be a long ramble, not a brief muse :P