I've been thinking of why it was so important that Aaron not be on the Ajira plane.
In all the flashes forward, backwards, and sideways, there could be a constant of a different sort-- birth. Deaths can be changed (see: Charlie, over and over again) but a person's birth date seems to be pretty fixed. Every track has a starting point, every circle even has a beginning, so even if a character is jumping through time, they are living out the same amount of years, just in a non-linear fashion. Juliet, for example, was born approximately sometime in the 1970s, lived her life as a straight, linear timeline until she began moving in time, then wound up living in the '70s as an adult. She didn't de-age back to childhood. Miles saw himself as a baby but didn't cease to exist-- why? Because he was still on one track of time. The complications now, I think, come from the flash-sideways and the fact that the characters are running in two, separate timelines. So what does that have to do with Aaron?
Assume for a moment that birth is the moment that an individual starts his or her own timeline. I don't want to get into a starting point of life debate because I don't think that's even relevant here-- I'm just saying that, up until Aaron is born about a month after 815 crashed, he existed as a part of Claire and her timeline. The second he was born, Aaron and Claire became two different people, two different fates and destinies, on two different tracks of time. Now, think about what happens if Oceanic 815 never crashes-- Aaron is completely unstuck in time. Worse than that, he might not *exist.* What would have happened to Aaron if Kate had brought him on the Ajira flight, instead of leaving him with his grandmother? It wouldn't have mattered if Aaron got sucked back in time to the 1970s or if he stayed in 2007, because everyone ended up in 2007 eventually. Aaron would have been three years old and perfectly fine up until the second Juliet detonated the hydrogen bomb. As s! oon as she did that, Aaron's starting point in time would cease to exist-- and so would Aaron.
Yes, Claire is pregnant with Aaron in the flash-sideways but we know for sure that she will never, ever give birth to Aaron on The Island, as it's submerged in water and Claire never even got on the plane. It might not make a difference. A million different things could happen to Claire in the flash-sideways-- she could miscarry, Aaron could be born still born, he could be born not even Aaron! He could still be Aaron but Claire gives him up for adoption and Aaron's Mega Important Destiny is never fulfilled. The point is that Aaron is the only character who doesn't have a fixed starting point in space and time before Juliet detonates the hydrogen bomb.
Leaving him out in the world in 2007 saves Aaron's life for whatever super important thing it is that the little boy is supposed to do.