My Donut Theory has a hole in it! by Dan

I only recently started reading other peoples theories on these sites, up until now I have watched the show and drew my own conclusions and speculation. Mostly speculation. BUt we are nearing the finish line and I want to figure out what is going on before they tell me. So please forgive me if my theory isn't breaking new ground.

for starters I tend to agree with those who say the "flash sideways" is actually the show's coda. Jughead didn't do it, we are seeing the end result of what will transpire this season. Otherwise we will be left with 2 outcomes, which will be very dissatisfying.

Like many I think the Island is hidden in time, and hasn't ever moved location. The island's capability for Time Travel is how Widmore got super Rich, having today's investment info yesterday. I Think Crazy messed up things like Eloise Hawkings shooting and Killing her own son Daniel, as an adult, prior to his birth, is the kind of thing that screws things up royally, and history tries to take corrective measures and set things right. I think The Island has been in a spiral due to time travel, A spiral that appears as a loop when looked at flat, 2 dimensionally, but when viewed at an angle, 3 dimensionally, it's a corkscrew. Every twist represents an alteration to history. The loop must end. Jacob and Smocke are hard to explain with this theory, but I will try, but for now I will continue past them...

I think Dharma started the loop in looking to counter the Valenzetti Equasion. The Valenzetti Equasion, oversimplified, would likely amount to Mankind's Aggression+ Mankinds Territorialism+ Mankind's propensity for warfare + Nuclear weapons= doomsday on specified Date. So in trying to unhinge the equasion looking for a way out of the doomsday date that was probably too close for comfort, Dharma invented an experiment that pitted people against each other- Others (or Hostiles) and castaways, be they from Planes or Boats or ultimately, unintentionally, even the Dharma Initiative themselves are factions/Nations/ tribes in this game/experiment. They are chess pieces/Lab rats in a game/experiment designed to understand and hopefully control Man's propensity for warfare.

(On a side note, the Valenzetti equasion should have been paid more attention on the show, within the episodes. One mention on the Hatch wall and then only being fleshed out on the "Lost Experience" Website is really weak. You shouldn't have to go multimedia for important details, that's bad story telling. That said, the amount of detail provide at the Lost Experience site seems to clearly indicate that it is an important detail.)

So continueing my theory-
The Game/experiment has spiralled out of control, there is no fail safe. The Button in the Hatch was the fail safe, able to reset the last 108 minutes, if only on the Island, keeping Time from progressing on the Island to Doomsday hour Zero to buy the time necessary to avert disaster. The Button/fail safe is no more, we are in the final countdown. I think it is possible that the Valenzetti Equasion has become a self fufilling prophecy with the Island becoming ground zero, the Pandora's box where the doomsday equasion will be unleashed and fulfilled or at least the Island is the only place where it can be prevented.

Even as the Dharma Initiative sets foot on the Island for what they think is the first time, they are game pieces/lab rats themselves, in a game/experiment they already started and lost control of, they just don't know it yet. They are already dealing with factors they set in motion arriving from the past to meet them in their present, arriving from a past that they will/have already altered (maybe several times over). Put breifly- Time Travel messes things up bad. It is like when you face two mirrors toward each other and the mirrors look into each other in a bottomless tunnel in either direction, then you stick your hand between the mirrors and your hand appears in and alters every last repetative image in the two tunnels.

I believe the numbers are not the Valenzetti equasion itself. They are numbers assigned to personality types within the context of the Valenzetti equasion. Think of number 23 as a Knight on a chess board, Knights tend to move in L formation. I say "tend" because the chess analogy only goes so far, IF freewill is involved.

( on another side note Oceanic 815 ( "eight fifteen" as it has always been called not "Eight one Five") 8+15= 23 = Shepard.)

The game anology works well with the "Claiming" of people that we have learned of in recent weeks, when people are pitted against each other, they must choose sides. Imagine a variant of chess where some Pawns or Rooks have no allegiance, instead of being black or white, they are grey, and with some move within the context of the game, they can be converted to the side, Black or white, that Claims them.

Now here is where I have a tough time - Jacob and Smocke. How can this man made scientific explanation explain the shape shifting into the appearance of a dead man, it's not even possession, Locke's corpse is not occupied by Smocke, his appearance has been replicated and he's the Smoke Monster too. My scientific explanation is somewhat ill equipped for this. My Theory has a hole in it. but I will try...

The Behavior of Goverments ( organized mobs with centralized will) and the threat of Mutual Assured Destruction have to be accounted for in the equasion. The Pawns in the game, individuals, do not account for this, pawns can be sacrificed. In the Chess game anology, the two Players who manipulate the pieces on the chess board would represent this. How could Dharma inject these seamingly immortals into the game/Experiment? I don't have that answer. I could suggest being conscience of the repeating loop, perpetually reliving it, for maybe 1000 years or longer, while retaining the knowledge of what transpired in the previous runs thru the loop, would make them far wiser than the average Lostie or Other, and would create the illusion of them being all knowing or psychic. They could even provide themselves with whatever they think they will need in a given situation simply by leaving it where they will need it, in advance, having forknowledge of most events. Maybe whatever speci! al properties the Island has can be harnessed by an individual with lifetimes of Knowledge and practice. but transform them into the smoke monster? That is a stretch. Like some sort of Super Zen Monk. But shape shifting and becoming black smoke that can physically attack is more than a bit of a stretch.

But, But even the Players ( Jacob and Smocke) would have to be part of the experiment and not above it or mutual annhilation would be off the table ( No one dies in the card game 'war', therefore, no one plays as if their life depended on it).

Having Jacob and Smocke in the game would account for these pesky rules that keep being alluded to " You can't Kill him" , the need for a loophole, only the leader can talk to Jacob...

Trying to unravel this bit, and connect it without undoing the whole theory is my problem here. Which of course, is likely a fools errand, trying to force the square peg into the round hole. It may simply be It doesn't fit because it is the wrong piece, the wrong theory. But I feel strongly about the Valenzetti equasion, They wouldn't have added it to the mythology of the show if it didn't play a role. Why stick such an eloborate red herring into the "Lost Experience" website at all? Why reference it on the wall in the Hatch? Why Tie it to the number that have played a significant role. But at the same time my theory also feels lopsidedly scientific, lacking in the faith vs reason balance that used to differentiate and divide Locke and Jack.


Has anyone formed a unified theory that addresses the Nature of the Island + Jacob and Smocke + Dharma + the purpose of the castaways + ????= what is ultimately at stake here? Even if it is wrong, I'll read it. Right or wrong, it is one hell of an undertaking to figure out any manner in which all these puzzle pieces could fit together.