I have a theory about who Jacob and MIB might be. What about Jacob = Aaron and MIB = David? I think many of us agree that Jacob and MIB will turn out to be characters that we've already been introduced to and will ultimately end up in a time loop that sets them back in time hundreds or more years. Who better than these two "brothers" from alternate timelines?
There has been some speculation that they are "brotherly" and both David and Jacob (sort of) are Jack's "sons" (in the main timeline, Jack and Kate raised Jacob together for a time). We see the two timelines are sort of converging, and it seems to me that David may be the only significant character who exists in the alternate timeline but not the original. What if somehow the convergence of the timelines causes David to cease to exist (i.e. loses his body) while Aaron lives on.
Somehow, David's spirit survives and becomes the Smoke Monster. He's bitter toward Jacob and has been trying to alter things so that his timeline would survive somehow. I believe there is some signifigance to whoever David's mother is and a reason we haven't been told yet who she is. If she turns out to be "crazy" or to match up with the Smoke Monster's description of his mother it might be a clue that this is correct. David/MIB can't leave the island because the electromagnetism and the island's properties somehow keeps him alive.
There was definitely something, a spark of recognition or something when Jack and Smoke-Locke eventually met face-to-face a couple of episodes ago. There is some connection between the two of them, and this might be it!
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